Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe.
Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. In reality, Trump is the symptom of a Western system which has failed to adapt and is now trying to rule through pure violent rhetoric, by targeting citizens and nations who propose politico-economic counter-models. The method will therefore change, but the objectives and the main principles will not.
Among all the uncertainties that remain, we must now understand the subsequent challenges that threaten the rest of the world; especially the Euro zone. Technically, new opportunities for a greater European independence are now to be seized, but will we be able to seize them?
Read more – GEAB 109 (15/11/2016)
- US Elections – Europe – World: What will the domino effect look like?
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation… (Read more – GEAB 109)
The limits of political anticipation when predicting the consequences of Trump’s victory
Donald Trump ran a typically populist campaign, promising anything and everything, reacting emotionally to all the attacks against him, a campaign moreover caricatured and distorted by the media… (Read more – GEAB 109)
Bankruptcy of the American Democratic System
First, we wish to clear the American people of the responsibility for the outcome of this vote. We have often said it: 58% of the US electorate considered the hypothesis of a Trump victory as catastrophic, but 52% thought the same thing of Clinton’s… (Read more – GEAB 109)
Populist Dominos in Europe
As we said, let us be careful not to judge the Americans for the result of this vote. Especially since identical tests await the Europeans who, in the coming months, will face flawed choices as well. We certainly are not the only ones to anticipate that the Europeans are likely to not raise the bar higher … (Read more – GEAB 109)
What about the “Transatlantic Union” Project?
Taking into account the political framework described above, what will happen to the great “transatlantic union” project dreamed of by a part of the European technocracy? This project, we should remind, is also a form of extremization of the ex-ante situation : the growing influence of the United States on the EU since 1989 … (Read more – GEAB 109)
Russia – Middle East: With Trump, the multipolar world becomes official
Our team anticipates that this “Transatlantic Union” will integrate Russia in one way or another. The Ukrainian crisis is partly the result of a failed attempt to annex Russia to the EU, under EU’s terms, by blowing the Putin-lock. Three years later, a large US-EU-Russia… (Read more – GEAB 109)
On the economic front – Inconsistency on all sides
In the economic field, Trump’s failure is the most likely. Knowing that any failure of Trump’s project will lead to his radicalisation, both politically and democratically, and geopolitically and strategically… (Read more – GEAB 109)
US-China a risk of confrontation is on the horizon in 2020
This economic “project” will inevitably collide with China, the other world power. Not only is the trade war – in which Trump planned to launch himself against China – likely to degenerate rather quickly, but the modern model of a global economy… (Read more – GEAB 109)
- Will the Euro survive beyond 2017?
We have claimed at great length in previous issues of the GEAB that neither of the two election candidates – Clinton or Trump – would be a good thing for the United States. The verdict has now been passed and it is Trump who will be elected president… (Read more – GEAB 109)
The rise or fall of the dollar: The interest rate paradox
Visibly, the euro did not manage to play its role as an international reference currency. On the contrary, it could only serve as a crutch for the US dollar. Hence, to clearly anticipate the future of the Euro, one must first understand the future of the dollar… (Read more – GEAB 109)
Scheduled end of the Fed’s “independence”
The third option is often regarded as the atomic bomb. This is due to the deflagration it would cause on the markets, but also because, in the event of default, the country risks cutting itself off from markets to finance its debt… (Read more – GEAB 109)
The political risk is the most dangerous for the euro
The main obstacle for the euro is clearly the political one. We now see to what extent the election of Mr. Trump paves the way for the European populists, and the latter are openly hostile to the euro and its “dysfunctions” (both real and imagined). Is this the end of the euro… (Read more – GEAB 109)
Towards a protectionist multipolar world
The Euro will definitely survive beyond 2017, but that year will be decisive for its future. At best, we will move towards a far-reaching reform which will ensure a sustainable future… (Read more – GEAB 109)
- The EU: Sailing in a raging storm with no navigation equipment
The editorial GEAB team decided to share, exceptionally, with its readers an excerpt of the as yet unpublished document entitled “Community or Empire”; a book written by Franck Biancheri in 1992… (Read more – GEAB 109)
Towards a Foresight Body?
Three years after the EU’s exit from the “laboratory”, no visible changes occurred. How to explain this political aphasia? The inability to foresee is easily explained: there is no credible institution or private body in the community for political forecasting…(Read more – GEAB 109)
Investments, trends and recommendations
– Gold: Stand still
– Raw materials: Industrial metals versus safe haven metals
– Interest rate rise: Definitely not!
– Oil: Not yet catching on…