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Reliability of GEAB’s anticipations renewed in 2015, with a 73% success rate!

Reliability of GEAB’s anticipations renewed in 2015, with a 73% success rate!

The AAFB is glad to share with you the good results achieved by the research teams of GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), the confidential newsletter of the European Laboratory for Political Anticipation (LEAP) edited in association with Editions Anticipolis.

Each December, the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin’s (GEAB) LEAP/E2020 team prepares an assessment of its anticipations to establish their reliability. This exercise, all too rarely carried out by think tanks, rating agencies and other forecasting organizations, is not only useful for evaluating the reliability of LEAP/E2020’s anticipations, it is equally an intellectual exercise necessary for putting the certainties or evidence, which have faded away during the year, in perspective.

The GEAB is a rational instrument for analyzing and understanding the trends which fashion our immediate future. Unlike ideological or mystic approaches, its assessment is, therefore, an integral part of its usefulness

The evaluation of GEAB’s anticipations for 2015 (from the GEAB No. 91 of January 2015) reached a success rate of 73% !

After a hollow year 2014, particularly because of the disruption caused by the Ukrainian crisis, our team returns to its usual scores, close to 75% of successful anticipations. Yet the context is not really easier than last year, but the work done after the evaluation of December 2014 is beginning to bear fruits. Many forecasts made by LEAP in GEAB bulletins were realized perfectly while many observers were more than skeptical:

. Greece remains in the eurozone

. Yuan joined the IMF

. Terrorism incidents (unfortunately) happened

. Oil collapsed

. The COP21 was a success

. Fed’s rates have not raised throughout the year …

[…]

The AAFB, in partnership with LEAP/E2020, invites you to discover the 26 main anticipations made by LEAP in its latest GEAB bulletin :

  • For GEAB’s suscribers, through this link
  • For non GEAB’s subscribers, don’t wait and get a subscription before February, 1st 2016 to take advantage of the « GEAB Anniversary gift box » and discover the anticipations forecasted by GEAB !

« Anticipating, it’s foresseing to act !»

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