A provocative title for the last GEAB at a time when the media are announcing the end of the world, chaos, and focus on “ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020”. But as the GEAB itself writes, its work is not to repeat what everyone knows… Discover the latest expectations for the 2020s and beyond.
The above title is provocative in a media world rightly focused on ecological catastrophes, popular discontent, risks of war and the financial crisis of 2020. But our mission is not to repeat what everyone knows – that the chaotic world of the beginning of the 21st century is a dangerous place… After all, hasn’t the world always been a dangerous place?
Since 2006, the GEAB has been analysing the unfolding of the global crisis (or transition) from a “systemic” perspective, leading it to identify common denominators amongst the myriad of apparently disconnected events affecting this period of history and to identify the phases of a process that is much more coherent than it seems.
This rigour of observing things is only possible because we force ourselves to “anticipate” the next steps – an exercise that leads us to constantly check the value of our hypotheses because “the future recalls itself to us”, unlike the past, about which we can say what we want. Therefore, our method involves taking risks. However, far from imposing our views, we bring into our discussion the critical intelligence of each of our readers. With these usual precautions, we will argue the hypothesis that the tipping-point of the crisis is behind us and that 2020 will send the first visible signs of stabilisation linked to the implementation of a new system transcending the old one.
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